Paradigm Shift — Boom and Bust Cycles, Bitcoin, and The Middle East
Sometimes the information you need comes in at the last minute.
My father was the Chaplain of Interstate Batteries when I was growing up. As a part of that role he would help the company’s Founder and Chairman, Norm Miller, navigate the waters of his philanthropy. My father would often tell me of the great business insight he would learn while working alongside Norm. There was one piece of advice that has stuck with me.
“Always wait until the last minute before making your decision. The piece of information you need usually comes in at the 11th hour.”
God is always speaking and He does so through many different avenues. It can be your pastor, a sermon, a blog, a friend, an article, or other information that He has put in front of you. The information we need is always out there… if we are listening.
The information I am about to share with you is valuable. For me, it was a steady stream of information over the summer [of 2021] with the most important information coming in at the 11th hour. It came through on November 22, 2021 before Black Friday and the selling we saw in the markets after Thanksgiving, and this information warrants attention. I want to (1) document it (2) explain what is suggests (3) offer some of my own insight into why it matters for what I call the End Game.
I posted on May 4th that the VIX was looking for an early summer breakout, with a target date of June 15th. Also, that this volatility could be tied to a new round of unrest in the Middle East. The VIX would breakout a week later and rallied from May 10th-12th accompanied by unrest in Israel, an assault on Israel from Gaza at the hands of Hamas. It was one of the most severe and significant air assaults on Israel in recent years.
Geopolitically, a key element occurred in June with remarkable silence from both Christians and news media. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was defeated by Naftali Bennett and replaced as the leader of Israel. I suggested in my June 14th post that Netanyahu’s term as leader could have market significance.
In both updates I wrote about the signal that bonds and the volatility index were sending. With market turbulence occurring after Thanksgiving, I want to share what I am seeing and why I believe everything leading up to this point is just a culmination of events building for something bigger.
SPX, which tracks the S&P 500, broke out of a long term resistance trend line dating back to October of 1987. Yes, that October of 1987. This trend line was responsible for the Black Monday crash (1987), the Dot Com Bubble crash (2000), and the COVID crash (2020). Stimulus since COVID has powered us through it… for now. This price action is parabolic and operates in something called a Leptokurtic distribution. This means that tail risk increases as distribution both up and down are more pronounced. Tail risk is unforeseen risk, similar to the iceberg that took down the Titanic, which sparks the unwinding of speculation. We now have a clear and defined negative monthly divergence on the Relative Strength Index with a potential topping pattern in November of 2021.
HYG, the high yield bond index, put in a Death Cross and lost the October 11th low on November 22nd, right before the Thanksgiving holiday. This was the 11th hour information I was waiting for. Risk on markets have historically followed in lock-step with the debt markets and in particular high yield. It was after HYG lost the October 11th low that the market began to selloff.
Last but not least, we have the VIX. Now… if you have experience in financial markets, charting, and technical analysis you know that drawing support and trend lines on the VIX doesn’t necessarily pan out as it does with stocks and crypto. However, there is one indicator that does matter for the VIX: the Golden Cross on the Daily chart.
The VIX put in a Golden Cross this week on December 2nd. The last one was February 28, 2020, before the panic selling of the COVID crash would start. The market rallied for a couple days afterward but it preceded the next leg down and with it a lot of fear. We have different circumstances now but unknown tail risk could still be out there.
When a market starts to correct, before a crash or speculative bubble pop, you see internal action like we are seeing today. The ARK Invest fund championed by Cathie Wood is in a significant bear market with stocks not far off from the highs.
In the final stages a few large blue chip names hold up the market. At this moment the market hinges on Apple and it was saved at the last hour on Friday, December 3rd. Though this save was likely temporary.
The market speculation driven by COVID induced stimulus did nothing but stoke the fire of greed in our society. Speculation in assets like Dogecoin, GameStop, and AMC are all signs of froth and foolishness. I invested in Bitcoin in 2013 and wrote about Bitcoin in my book End Game (2015). I have experience through many speculative cycles and I can tell you that despite Fed intervention, this time is not different.
It is the Fed who is creating these market distortions and the tail risk we have today.
— Application & Significance
All to say, the signs are there that suggest we are on the precipice of something major. It is not about the markets themselves but about what market tops are connected to in history. They coincide with major developments in our world that push the End Game closer.
As I wrote in my book, End Game II, many things were fulfilled following 2015 (when I wrote End Game I). Here are some of those major events in order:
- The blood moon tetrad of 2014–2015, which occurred on Jewish holy days and pointed to a major change in Israel, was fulfilled with the moving of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on the 70th Gregorian anniversary of Israel (2018). 2018 was the convergence window mentioned in End Game, the 70th Anniversary of the State of Israel (WWII) and the 100th Anniversary of Mandate Palestine (WWI).
- Trump was elected POTUS in 2016. Trump’s election in 2016 would prove to be consequential to everything that was going to occur in Israel.
- Trump’s Declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2017 occurred exactly 100 years from the 1917 Balfour Declaration.
- In 2017 the nations of Turkey, Russia, and Iran would formally align through the Astana Accords in Astana (Nur-Sultan), Kazakhstan.
- Bitcoin would become mainstream in 2017.
- COVID occurred in 2019, 100 years from the Spanish Flu (1918–1920).
- The Abraham Accords were brokered (2020) and Israel was moved to CENTCOM (2021).
- The post COVID stimulus rally of 2021 would catapult Bitcoin and crypto into mainstream adoption, even into sovereign adoption by nations.
Where this leaves us is in the End Game. One where Bitcoin decentralizes finance, a world with a metaverse. One where we seek space and the heavens rather than repenting and turning to the God in Heaven. A world on the precipice of food inflation prophesied in the end times, where two pounds of wheat will cost a days wage.
We are in the passive wrath phase of God’s plan, before the pre-wrath portion of the Tribulation. The Church is asleep, lost, indifferent, politically drunk, or being taken captive by false emotional spirits and perverted doctrine. Hearts are growing cold and we are in the midst of what I believe to be the prophesied Great Falling Away, which I mention in End Game.
With Russia building up forces near Ukraine, and Israel with a new, young, Prime Minister, we come into a new era for the Middle East. The post Abraham Accord Middle East will be different and with leaders that embrace crypto we are ripe for next steps in the prophesied global order before the return of Christ.
With Turkey, Russia, and Iran formally aligned as of 2017. With a new Prime Minister in Israel. With Bitcoin now mainstream. With a new administration in the US. With the Turkish Lira collapsing and with Russia knocking on the door of Ukraine once again, you have to pay attention when markets are telegraphing volatility because to date, all major tops or moments of market volatility are tied to world changing events.
So the point of these charts, of all this work and insight, the point of my books, my blogs, and all of my writing is to draw your attention back to Jesus. To remind you that paradigms do shift, sometimes underneath your feet, and you are in the middle of a global paradigm shift, one of biblical proportions.
Buckle up, the birth pangs only increase in both intensity and frequency.
*Disclaimer: Nothing mentioned here is investment advice. This is market observance and should be taken as opinion and not investment advice.